Bucs Playoff Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This NFL season has been a roller coaster. This applies to certain teams (and their respective fanbases) more than others, of course.
Two of the teams that have experienced the most dramatic fluctuation in terms of their performance in 2023, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles, just so happen to be meeting in the first round of the NFL playoffs.
The Philadelphia Eagles, coming off an impressive albeit losing effort in the Super Bowl had grand ambitions entering this season. A roster stacked with talent and experience, coming off a disappointing result the previous year, created a collective determination to dominate opponents each week. Which is exactly what Philadelphia did when they stormed out of the gate to a 10-1 start. But like any good roller coaster, once they got to the top, the Philadelphia Eagles descended back down to earth in a hurry. They lost five of their last six games to close out the regular season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven't exactly been the model of consistency either. They surprised a lot of people when they jumped out to a 4-1 record to start the season before losing six out of their next seven. But as most people reading this already know, the Buccaneers managed to right the ship (pun intended) and win five out of their last six games to clinch their third consecutive NFC South Division, earning themselves the privilege of hosting a playoff game at Raymond James Stadium.
So here we are.
Despite Eagles' star receiver A.J. Brown being ruled out for this contest due to a knee injury, Philly remains a three-point favorite in most betting markets. Due to the litany of weapons and their postseason success within the last 12 months, I guess it makes sense. But with Tampa Bay expected to have a fully healthy roster, Bucs' fans still have the right to feel pretty good about their chances in this game.
Let's take a look at three important matchups that I expect to have a significant role in determining the outcome of this NFC Wildcard playoff game.
1. Buccaneers' Interior Offensive Line vs. Eagles' Interior Defensive Line
Sep 25, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Despite their defensive struggles as of late, the Philadelphia Eagles still possess one of the most impressive collections of defensive linemen in the league. Led by standout rookie, Jalen Carter, his former teammate at Georgia, Jordan Davis, and trusty veteran, Fletcher Cox, the interior of the Eagles' defensive line is a problem. Not only can this group function as a brick wall against the run, but their collective strength, length, and athleticism cause all sorts of problems when it comes to rushing the passer. Whether that's by drawing double teams to free up edge rushers -- Hassan Reddick and Josh Sweat -- or simply getting home themselves, the Eagles' defensive front can make an opposing quarterback's life very hard. Which is why, in my opinion, the Buccaneers' offensive line needs to put together their best game of the season.
Left guard, Aaron Stinnie, has struggled mightily against far less imposing fronts than what the Eagles present. Although center, Robert Hainsey, has improved his play as the season has gone on, he's no Ryan Jensen. He is going to have his hands full trying to slow down Philly's defensive tackles. Cody Mauch's athleticism should allow him to hold his own, but it's a tall task for any rookie offensive lineman to stand up to the quality of players mentioned above.
The Bucs have had serious issues establishing the run against pretty much any opponent this year. I think that in order to find success in this game, they're going to need to focus on quick passes to supplement the run game and buy Baker just enough time to take advantage of the weapons he has in the passing game.
2. Buccaneers' Passing Attack vs. Eagles' Secondary
Sep 25, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches a touchdown pass defended by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay (2) in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
I'm not saying the Bucs should completely abandon the run game, but they need to be aggressive through the air in order to improve their chances of winning this football game. During the regular season, the Eagles gave up the fifth-most passing yards (4,551), and the second-most passing touchdowns (35) in the entire league.
Not only are Mike Evans and Chris Godwin mismatches for Philadelphia's extremely vulnerable secondary, but Rachaad White is one of the best-receiving backs in the entire league. Bucs' offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, would be wise to feature White more as a receiver.
Baker Mayfield has had an extremely light week of practice, which has hopefully allowed him to rest the rib injury that's been plaguing him. Once this game kicks off, Baker needs to make good decisions -- which he's done most of this season -- and throw with confidence and anticipation -- which he's only done some of the time. When he has, he's looked like a top-10 quarterback.
Considering how favorably Tampa Bay's receiving weapons matchup against Philadelphia's defensive backs, Bucs' fans should hope that Dave Canales has plans to expose that mismatch. The other caveat, of course, is whether or not the Buccaneers' OL can stand up to Philly's front seven. If those things happen, then it's just on Baker Mayfield to execute.
3. Buccaneers' Linebackers vs. Eagles Run Game
Jan 1, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David (54) reacts after a play against the Carolina Panthers in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Without A.J. Brown at his disposal, Jalen Hurts' job becomes that much more difficult. Throwing with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand which he suffered during the final week of the regular season, and it's clear that the Eagles' quarterback is going to have some additional challenges to deal with in this game.
These factors, combined with Hurts' dynamic ability as a runner, would lead one to believe that he may rely on that element of his game more so than he did during the regular season. And based on how successful the Eagles were running the ball against the Bucs' defense in Week 3, you can also expect them to try and establish their running backs in this contest.
I mentioned the Eagles' defensive line already, but their offensive line may be even better. The Eagles are eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging 129 per contest. The Eagles' O-line absolutely bullied the Bucs' D-line in Week 3, which is a big reason why D'Andre Swift was able to explode for 130 yards on the ground in that matchup. However in the twelve games since, Swift hasn't managed to reach the 100-yard plateau even once.
With the Eagles' passing attack limited by injury, they will surely try and establish the run vs. Tampa on Monday night. Which I believe puts a huge amount of responsibility on the shoulders of the Buccaneers' two inside linebackers, Lavonte David and Devin White. David has been one of the best linebackers in the game for over a decade, and his play this season has proven that he's still elite. Equally as effective defending the run or the pass, David's intelligence, instincts, and leadership are at the heart of Todd Bowles' defense. His role will be pivotal for the Buccaneers on Monday, and I'd be shocked if he doesn't bring his best stuff. The bigger question is whether or not his partner in crime, Devin White, will show up. When he's at his best, White is a major force. When he's not, he can be a liability. White has the speed, power, and tackling ability to severely limit Jalen Hurts' production as a runner. Whether or not he's willing to put forth the effort in order to do so on Monday night, we'll have to wait and see.
Even though the Buccaneers know what to expect from Lavonte David in this game, his performance could be nullified if Devin White doesn't bring his best effort. But if he does? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have everything they need to slow down the Eagles' rushing attack.
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