Jets vs. Bills Prediction, Player Prop Bets & Odds for 11/19
In Week 11, AFC East rivals square off in Orchard Park, NY, as the New York Jets travel upstate to face the Buffalo Bills, who are suddenly up against the wall at 5-5 with a must-win game on tap. The Bills enter Week 11 and this game with a proverbial “fork in the road” as they’ve fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady. We’ll see what this means, but the Bills will come out fired up, looking to pick up some of the pieces of their 2023 season.
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NEW YORK JETS VS. BUFFALO BILLS PREDICTION: Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 Receptions (-166) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction for NFL Week 11
The Jets have used a great defense and coaching to still be at 4-5 entering Week 11. It’s bewildering that the Jets haven’t explored any and all options at quarterback without Aaron Rodgers leading them, as Zach Wilson has been truly bad. The Jets have the third-worst scoring offense in the NFL, and it’s a testament to how strong their defense has been that they’re even still in the mix in the tough AFC.
As we said, the Bills are 5-5, and many factors have been at play here. People want to look at Josh Allen’s 11 interceptions and drive the narrative home that Allen hasn’t been good, but Allen still has a top-5 ESPN QBR and is tied for the league in touchdown passes with 19. He also leads all quarterbacks in raw EPA with 65.4 expected points added. He’s been fantastic, and looking into more metrics than the box scores paints a bigger picture of how Ken Dorsey may just be the scapegoat firing for Buffalo, having to make SOME kind of move here.
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Jets vs. Bills Player Prop Picks & Best Bets Including Dalton Kincaid and Garrett Wilson
For the first of our player prop picks, we’re going to the Buffalo side with the rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. He’s been fantastic so far during the three-game stretch where Dawson Knox has been out of the lineup. Kincaid has either a touchdown or 81 receiving yards in each game, but that’s not what we’re chasing with this prop. We’re tackling the reception prop, taking Dalton Kincaid at over 4.5 receptions with -166 odds. Kincaid has hit the over in all three weeks since Knox has been out of the lineup. With the Jets mainly playing zone, Kincaid can sit down in zones and compile receptions from Allen as the Bills’ outside receivers have a tougher time with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
We’re taking Zach Wilson’s favorite target for the other player prop, Garrett Wilson. Say what you want about the Jets’ struggles on offense, but the receiver Wilson hasn’t been an issue. If anything, you can say that Zach Wilson should be targeting Garrett Wilson even more. Wilson has at least 12 targets in five of his last six games and over 90 receiving yards in his last four games. Taking Garrett Wilson at over 65.5 receiving yards at -115 odds seems like a lock here. Alternatively, we also like the alternate receiving prop of taking Garrett Wilson 90+ receiving yards, which comes in at +225 odds. Wilson has hit 90+ receiving yards in three of his last four games.
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Latest Jets vs. Bills Odds, Spread & Betting Lines for 11/19 Presented by DraftKings
This article highlights the latest odds for our expert’s Jets vs. Bills predictions. Here are the latest Jets vs. Bills odds for Sunday’s game via DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Money line: New York Jets (+260) vs. Buffalo Bills (-325)
- Point spread: New York Jets +7 (-112) vs. Buffalo Bills -7 (-108)
- Game total (over/under): Over 39.5 (-110) vs. Under 39.5 (-110)
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Bills Fire Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey
On Tuesday, the Bills fired Ken Dorsey, relieving him from his duties as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. With head coach Sean McDermott saying a decision was reached to “find consistent production,” the Bills installed former Panthers offensive coordinator and current Bills quarterbacks coach Joe Brady as the interim offensive coordinator.
Dorsey moved up to offensive coordinator from quarterbacks coach when the previous offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, was hired by the New York Giants as their head coach in 2022. With the Bills still pretty high in offensive EPA per play (third in the NFL) and also third in yards per play, it was a curious move to dismiss Dorsey so quickly, but we’ll see what effect this will have on the Bills going forward as they try and salvage their season.
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