NBA Draft: Top Prospects Returning to College
The NCAA’s draft withdrawal deadline elapsed at midnight on Wednesday, firming up the pool of college prospects for the 2022 draft as a host of other notables chose to return to school at the last minute. The final early-entry deadline is June 13, which is meaningful for international prospects and those no longer considering college. For now, here’s a quick rundown of the key college returners you should know going into next season.
It’s worth prefacing these player updates with a quick note on the shape of the 2022 draft itself, which always becomes a factor in how players make these decisions. The prevailing sense I’ve gotten in conversations with team personnel in recent days is that the draft feels more fluid than usual. Due to an extreme variance of opinion around the NBA on prospects, beginning roughly in the teens, front offices are trying to sift through an overwhelming amount of market uncertainty, which runs all the way into the second round.
The majority of draft picks in the 20s and 30s are thought to be available in trades, and a lot of movement is expected. That said, building out hypothetical deals at this point in time is like trying to hit a moving target due to the lack of clarity over which players will be actually available at which spots. In some cases, that directly impacted prospects who were on the fence about the draft and hoping to obtain some type of guarantee to stay in: at the end of the day, there were only so many valid landing spots, and at this stage teams can’t really promise picks that they still might trade.
The first part of this column came out immediately following the early-entry deadline and covered prospects who chose not to enter the draft. And while for the most part, the top players still on the fence decided to turn pro, here’s a look at some of the key names who opted to return to college this week.
Terquavion Smith, G, NC State
Smith announced Tuesday that he’d return to college, positioning himself for a run at the first round in 2023. He was one of the top performers at the combine, showcasing his knack for scoring and underrated playmaking skills coming off a surprisingly strong freshman year. Although Smith had drawn plenty of interest from teams, the uncertain nature of the 2022 draft was a factor here, and it was no sure thing he’d go in the first round. He should have a legitimate opportunity to secure better draft position, and will presumably have even more freedom to create offense at NC State this fall. Although microwave scorers can be an acquired taste, there may still be more to learn here, and a big season should vault Smith firmly into first-round territory next season. He turns 20 in December.
Kris Murray, F, Iowa
Although NBA teams had no shortage of interest in Murray this spring, most front offices were operating under the assumption that he was headed back to Iowa. He’ll look to stage a similar breakout to his twin brother Keegan, who turned in a huge season with the Hawkeyes and became a projected top-six pick. While it’s not fair to compare him to his brother, Kris will be a fascinating player to track early on next season, considering he’ll be playing as the top dog on his team for the first time in his career. Although he played less than half of the available minutes at Iowa last season, Murray shot 54% on twos and 38.7% on threes, and has substantial untapped offensive talent and feel. Kris is a bit more finesse-oriented than Keegan, who dominated with his energy this season, but it won’t be surprising to see him become a top 20 selection next year, and potentially vault into the lottery.
Marcus Sasser, PG, Houston
This was perhaps the most consequential decision from a college basketball standpoint, with Sasser opting to return for his senior year and quarterback a potential Final Four team at Houston. He broke his foot in December after 12 games and missed most of the season, but recovered quickly, had a strong showing at G League Elite camp, and put himself in position to get drafted had he stayed in. Assuming he remains healthy and continues to gather momentum, Sasser now looks like a potential first-round pick in 2023: he’s an excellent shooter and active defender, and he plays a tough style that profiles well as a potential NBA backup, at worst. He also has a solid frame for a smaller guard, measuring just under 6’ 3” with a 6’ 7” wingspan at the combine. I’d expect a serious breakout, considering how well he started the season and how good the situation he’s returning to should be.
Julian Strawther, G/F, Gonzaga
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Strawther played a supporting role at Gonzaga as a sophomore, and his play tailed off a little bit toward the end of the season, but he had a number of good moments and looks like an obvious candidate to take on more responsibility moving forward. Strawther has always had good scoring instincts and was super-efficient last season, shooting 65% on twos and 36% from three, although the volume wasn’t that high. He measured well at 6’ 7” in shoes at the combine and has good size for a wing, but there have been questions dating back to high school about his playmaking and defense, both of which will be more heavily scrutinized this fall. Strawther has the skills to be the next Gonzaga star to make a leap and could play his way into the first-round picture next season if things go well. Star teammate Drew Timme also returned to school, but profiles as more of a fringe prospect in the context of the draft.
Tyler Burton, F, Richmond
Burton was in the second-round mix and had his fans around the league, but opted to return to Richmond for his senior year, where he should be in for another big season. He’s an excellent athlete and sturdy defender who would have been a strong two-way contract candidate had he remained in the draft. Burton has room to grow offensively, and teams will want to see him continue making strides as a shooter and expand his game off the dribble a bit more. Physically, he fits the bill as a prototypical NBA wing, and he should have a chance to work his way into firmer position next season, when he’ll again be one of the top players in the Atlantic 10 and hopefully have a bit more freedom to experiment.
Pete Nance, F, Northwestern (transferring)
Although it’s unclear what his transfer plans are at this point, Nance will return to school seeking a new situation and if all goes well, should have a better chance at the draft in 2023. As the younger brother of Pelicans forward Larry Nance Jr., Nance has a good frame for the NBA and a pretty good skill-set for someone his size, as an excellent passer and capable ball-handler who can make plays for teammates. He needs to become a more consistent shooter, but the hope is that a change of scenery will help unlock more of his game in a positive way. Although he’ll be 23 on draft night, Nance should be squarely on the second-round radar going into next season.
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